AFL Round 13 Tips & Predictions 2022: H2H Value Picks & Odds

This is one of those spots where the Cats’ broader season strength is obvious, but the matchup isn’t as one-way as the price implies. Adelaide get a meaningful home-venue edge at Adelaide Oval, and the model also tags opponent weakness leaning the Crows’ way, which is usually a sign the underdog has a path to keep the game in their preferred shape rather than just hanging on.

At $2.35 you’re being paid as if Adelaide are a low-40s chance. Footylab has them closer to the low-50s, which is a big enough disagreement to call it strong value. On the flip side, Geelong at $1.67 doesn’t leave much margin for error if the Crows can turn it into a contested, momentum-swinging home game.

Adelaide’s forward mix is worth monitoring given Riley Thilthorpe’s one-game suspension hanging over this round (unless overturned). That’s the kind of availability swing that can change how the Crows score and how Geelong set up behind the ball.

Source: MATCH REVIEW: Crows big man cops ban for striking

The Hawks get the full stack here: season strength, recent form, and a solid MCG edge all lean their way. When all three line up, it usually means the favourite isn’t just better on paper, they’re also more likely to control the game’s repeatable parts: field position, stoppage pressure, and the ability to absorb a run-on.

$1.35 says Hawthorn win about seven times out of ten. Footylab has it closer to eight in ten, and that extra slice matters even at short odds. The Bulldogs’ $3.40 looks tempting as a pure number, but the model is basically saying they need a lot to go right to get there.

Freo’s profile is the stronger one, particularly on season strength and recent form, so it’s not hard to see why they’re favoured. The interesting counter is that opponent weakness leans North’s way, which is basically the model acknowledging there are scenarios where the Roos can make this uglier than the Dockers would like.

If you’re looking at $1.27 for Fremantle, you’re paying for a result that needs to happen most of the time, and Footylab isn’t seeing enough extra certainty to call it value. North at $4.00 isn’t dismissed either, but the numbers don’t stretch far enough to justify a value tag on the upset.

This is a Suns-friendly setup: recent form leans Gold Coast, there’s a clear home-venue edge at People First Stadium, and the opponent-weakness lean also points their way. Put that together and you’ve got a game where Gold Coast should be able to play on their terms more often than not, rather than simply relying on a coin-flip finish.

$1.65 implies the Suns win just under 60% of the time. Footylab has them closer to 70%, which is a chunky gap for a match that isn’t priced as a blowout. If you like Brisbane, you’re basically betting that their best footy shows up away from home and overrides multiple matchup leans going against them.

Port’s season strength is real, but the model is clearly buying West Coast’s recent form and also sees a meaningful opponent-weakness angle in the Eagles’ favour. That combination often points to a favourite being priced off reputation while the underdog’s current level is being under-credited.

$2.50 says West Coast are a sub-40% chance. Footylab has them in the mid-50s, which is exactly the kind of gap you need to justify taking an underdog in H2H. Conversely, $1.58 on Port is asking them to win this comfortably often, and the numbers just don’t back that level of confidence.

Sydney still own the key leans: better season strength, better recent form, and the SCG edge. The issue is the price has basically assumed all of that converts into a near-certainty, and Footylab is a touch less convinced that St Kilda are so far off the pace that they can’t keep it competitive.

At $1.25 you need Sydney to win this almost every time to feel good about it. Footylab has them more in the low-70s range, which is still favourite territory, just not “blink and you miss it” territory. St Kilda at $4.30 isn’t stamped as value by the ruleset, but it does reflect why the Swans price is being flagged: there’s a bit more upset probability in the game than the market is charging for.

Carlton’s recent form and season strength leans are enormous, so it’s not a “Carlton are bad” call. The reason the price gets questioned is the opponent-weakness lean pointing to Essendon: it’s a reminder that the Bombers have enough in their profile to drag a favourite into a scrap, especially if the game becomes messy and momentum-driven.

$1.24 implies Carlton win this more than three-quarters of the time. Footylab has it closer to two-thirds, which is still a clear Blues lean, just not at a price that leaves you much room for a flat patch. Essendon at $4.35 isn’t a ruleset value play either, but it’s the kind of number that makes sense if you think the Bombers can turn it into four quarters of pressure rather than a clean Carlton cruise.

Melbourne get the key leans: stronger season profile, better recent form, and an opponent-weakness tag against Collingwood. That’s a pretty clean “better team on current evidence” read, even if it’s not enough to turn into a strong value call.

This is basically a coin-flip market, but Footylab leans Demons. $1.83 implies Melbourne win a touch over half the time; Footylab has them closer to the high-50s. It’s not a massive edge, but in a tight H2H line, a few percentage points is the difference between “fair enough” and “worth a play.”