Our Approach
Quick definitions for the stats, pricing and probability terms used across Footylab match pages, market cards and articles.
Footylab uses these metrics to explain whether a market looks like value, fair or ripoff. The short version: headline value comes from comparing Footylab's stats probability with the probability implied by the bookmaker price. Supporting metrics explain why the model leans that way.
For ATS markets only: the value/fair/ripoff score centered around zero.
ATS only. Footylab's scoring probability minus the raw odds-implied scoring chance. For H2H, see Footylab predicted edge — H2H verdicts come from rule-based classification rather than a single edge score.
Also shown as: Value score, Avg value score, Overall value score, Score
How much Footylab thinks the H2H side may be mispriced, in percentage points.
Stats-implied win % minus market-implied win %. Positive points to possible value; negative points to possible ripoff. The final Value / Ripoff / No strong signal call is made by Footylab's H2H rule classifier, not by a threshold on this number — treat it as supporting evidence.
Also shown as: Footylab market edge, Footylab predicted edge, Predicted edge
Footylab's stats-based probability for the team or player.
For H2H this is a calibrated win probability from team stats and context. For ATS this is an independent scoring probability from player role, scoring profile, team attack, opponent weakness, venue and availability.
Also shown as: Stats implied win %, Stats-implied win %, Footylab scoring chance, Stats probability
The chance implied by the listed bookmaker price.
For H2H Footylab uses the two-way market share after removing margin where possible. For ATS it uses the raw independent chance from 100 divided by decimal odds.
Also shown as: Odds implied win %, Odds-implied win %, Market probability, Odds-implied chance
The percentage-point gap between Footylab's view and the market view.
Positive means the stats probability is higher than the price implies. Negative means the price implies more chance than the stats support.
Also shown as: Stats gap, Probability gap
Footylab's reference price from the stats probability.
A reference price for analysis. If the bookmaker price is longer than this reference, the price can look more generous; if shorter, it can look expensive.
Also shown as: Fair price, Footylab fair price, Fair odds
The quoted decimal price for the selection.
Higher decimal odds imply a lower chance and a bigger payout if successful. Footylab compares this quoted price with its fair reference and probability view.
Also shown as: Best odds, Best price, Worst odds, Price
The average available price across comparable bookmaker quotes.
This helps show whether the selected bookmaker is offering a generous, ordinary or short price relative to the broader board.
Also shown as: Market average odds, Market average
How the selected price compares with the current market range.
Positive means the selected price is better than the market baseline for that selection. Negative means it is shorter or less attractive than the broader market.
Also shown as: Relative edge to market, Market range score, Best odds edge
A 0-100 rating for the underlying stats profile.
A higher number means the team or player grades better on the weighted categories available for that market. It supports the read, but the headline value call comes from price versus probability.
Also shown as: Stats rating, Overall stats score, Raw stats, Overall stats rating
A recency-weighted result score across the latest five team games.
Wins score highest, draws count halfway, and newer games carry more weight. This keeps Recent Form sensitive to losing streaks inside the five-game lookback.
Also shown as: Recent performance score, recent_performance_score
Recent tries scored across the player's last three available games.
A quick recent-form signal for ATS. It is useful context, but Footylab avoids treating a short scoring run as certainty.
Also shown as: Tries last 3
Recent tries scored across the player's last ten available games.
A broader recent scoring sample than last-three form. Still only one part of the ATS profile.
Also shown as: Tries last 10
Team wins across the most recent five available results.
A compact form signal for H2H using the same five-game window as Recent Form. It supports the stats read but does not override price or probability.
Also shown as: Wins last 5, Wins last 3
Team wins across the most recent ten available results.
A broader team-form signal for H2H. It helps avoid overreacting to only the latest result.
Also shown as: Wins last 10
The category doing the most to support the current stats read.
Used to show the main statistical reason behind the rating, such as attack, defence, availability, recent form or opponent weakness.
Also shown as: Strongest category, Strongest stats category
The normalized score for one underlying stat.
Raw stat values are normalized so different stats can be compared and combined inside category scores.
Also shown as: Metric score, Category score
How much a category contributes to the overall stats rating.
Higher-weight categories have more influence on the final rating. Missing categories are skipped rather than filled with fake values.
Also shown as: Weight, Weighted contribution
How much listed injuries affect the availability read.
Higher impact means the missing or doubtful players matter more to Footylab's availability adjustment.
Also shown as: Key player impact
Bookmaker margin or ATS margin proxy.
For H2H this is true overround from the listed outcomes. For ATS, outcomes are not mutually exclusive, so Footylab uses a proxy against the median market baseline across comparable players.
Also shown as: Overround, Bookmaker margin, ATS margin proxy
A secondary ATS rank comparison between stats and market.
Positive means Footylab's within-match stats rank is stronger than the market rank. It is secondary context for ATS; the main ATS value score uses scoring probability versus odds-implied chance when available.
Also shown as: Percentile divergence, Rank gap, Percentile divergence score
Where a player ranks by stats profile within the same ATS match field.
Higher percentiles mean the player grades better relative to the other eligible players in that same match.
Also shown as: Stats percentile
Where a player ranks by market price within the same ATS match field.
Shorter prices usually imply a stronger market rank. Footylab uses this as supporting context for ATS, not as the headline value score.
Also shown as: Market percentile
How favourable the attacking environment looks for an ATS player.
Summarises team attack context that can help or hurt a player's try-scoring chance.
Also shown as: Attack env, Attack environment, Team Attack Environment
