NRL Round 13 ATS Value Watchlist

The case is pretty simple: his underlying scoring profile is strong for the role, and the recent try form isn’t a mirage either. If he’s in the 17 and gets any kind of meaningful stint, you’re basically buying a bench forward/utility try lane at a price that’s been set like he’s irrelevant.

At 16.00, the market is saying “this is a pure lottery ticket”. Footylab’s view is closer to a single-digit price (fair around 9.96), which is why it lands as one of the bigger value gaps on the slate.

The catch: he’s currently listed on the extended bench (interchange No.19). That’s not a small detail in ATS — it’s the whole bet. Source: NRL 2026, round 13, official team lists, injuries, updates, ins and outs, Fantasy

This is the classic prop try: not about line breaks, more about repeat sets, short-side quick plays, and being the next big body through when the defence is gassed. The supporting profile is solid across opportunity, team attack environment and a decent explosiveness tick for a middle.

A fair price around 9.67 versus 13.00 is the sort of gap you actually want with forwards — because you’re never getting a “safe” ATS prop, you’re getting paid for the chaos. Here, the market’s paying a little too much.

Interchange forwards can look like “random try scorers” until you watch the patterns: late-half ruck speed, tired markers, and a team happy to play direct. His base scoring rate and recent form both point to him being more than a pure crash-and-hope option.

11.00 is the market basically shrugging. Footylab’s fair price is closer to 8.62, which means you’re being paid overs for a player whose profile suggests he finds the stripe more often than the typical bench middle.

This is built around a straightforward middle-forward try lane: goal-line carries, second-phase moments, and being the guy who gets the “next one” when a set has already bent the line. The opponent weakness and base scoring indicators are both sitting in the right zone for a long-shot middle.

15.00 is a proper outsider quote. Footylab’s fair price is closer to 13.48, so you’re not chasing a miracle — you’re taking a price that’s a bit too big for the chance being modelled.

The obvious issue: he’s been named as No.18 (reserve). If he stays there, it’s a no-bet in practice. Source: NRL Team List: Round 13 vs. Broncos

This is one of those “watch the Raiders inside 10” plays. Horsburgh’s profile is built for ugly tries: quick play-the-balls, a direct carry line, and enough repeat involvement that he doesn’t need a perfect set piece. Recent form and base rate both support him being a genuine try threat for a prop.

8.50 is a chunky number for a middle with this kind of scoring chance. Footylab’s fair price is closer to 7.61 — not a massive difference in dollars, but a meaningful one in probability.

Walsh can absolutely score in any game — his explosiveness and opportunity profile are elite. The problem is the price is asking him to score almost two times out of three. Even for a star fullback in a good attack, that’s a brutal standard to meet.

At 1.60, there’s basically no margin for error: one pass goes to a winger, one early tackle on a sweep, one sin bin that changes the script, and you’re cooked. Footylab’s fair price is closer to 1.50, but more importantly, the modelled chance just isn’t anywhere near the 62.5% the market is charging.

Yes, wingers in good systems get fed. Jenkins also rates highly on base scoring and opportunity. But ATS is about frequency, not vibes — and even strong wingers don’t live in the 60% range unless everything is perfectly funnelled to their corner.

1.65 is the market saying “he scores more often than not”. Footylab’s fair price is closer to 1.63, but the key point is the probability: you’re paying for a try rate that’s roughly double what Footylab expects.

To’o’s try profile is always live because Penrith manufacture yardage and finish sets well. But 1.80 is pricing him like he’s the default finisher, every week, regardless of opponent or team mix. Footylab’s view is that his true anytime rate sits much closer to “one in three” than “better than one in two”.

When you’re taking 1.80, you’re not just betting To’o to score — you’re betting that Penrith’s tries flow to his wing at a very specific rate. That’s a thin edge to live on.

Penrith have flagged they’re sweating on Origin stars, including To’o. That matters for ATS because role certainty and late changes can shift the whole edge picture. Source: Panthers v Warriors: Sweating on Origin stars; Pompey in for RTS

This isn’t a “pretty” try case; it’s a functional one. The team attack environment grades well, and the opponent weakness indicators aren’t screaming “no chance”. If he’s getting minutes in the middle/edge rotation, he’s the type who can pop up on a short ball or jag one off a broken line when the ruck compresses.

13.00 is the market treating him like a once-a-season scorer. Footylab’s fair price is closer to 8.54, which is a big difference for a long-shot ATS.

The model is basically saying: if he’s involved, there’s a real lane. The team attack environment is decent enough, and the matchup context isn’t a total dead-end. But this isn’t a clean, high-confidence profile — it’s more “there’s a price mismatch if the role is real”.

10.00 is a proper outsider quote, and Footylab’s fair price is closer to 6.75. That’s meaningful, but it comes with a big “know what you’re buying” warning.

Vailea’s profile is more “chance creation” than “guaranteed finishing”: good explosiveness and opportunity signals, plus a matchup that doesn’t grade as a brick wall. If North Queensland’s right-side shapes are working, he’s the kind of outside back who can benefit.

6.50 isn’t a giveaway, but it’s a touch bigger than Footylab’s fair price (around 4.74). That’s the difference between “priced about right” and “worth a nibble”.

He’s been named in the squad, and the Cowboys also flagged a key backline return which can change how the edge looks and who gets the finishing touches. Source: Cowboys NRL team list: Round 13 v Raiders

If Lawrie scores, it’s almost always off a grind: repeat sets, a couple of quick rucks, and a middle forward getting rewarded for doing the hard stuff. The opponent weakness indicators are fine, but nothing in the profile screams “this should be shorter”.

At 16.00, you’re already in long-shot territory, and Footylab isn’t seeing enough of a mismatch to call it value. It’s basically priced in the right postcode.

For an interchange forward, the scoring lane is always the same: earn minutes, get into the contest, and hope your team spends time camped on the line. The supporting indicators here are middling across opportunity and team attack environment, which is why the model isn’t pounding the table.

15.00 is a big number, but it’s not obviously wrong. Footylab’s fair price is around 11.96 — close enough that it lands as “about right” rather than “must play”.

Marzhew’s a weapon and the Knights love finishing down that edge when it’s on. But even elite wingers don’t score seven times out of ten in the NRL. You can have all the base scoring and recent form in the world — and he does — and still not justify a price that basically demands a try.

1.44 gives you no breathing room. One defensive read from the Eels that shuts down his corner, one try that goes through the middle, or one kick that bounces the wrong way, and the bet’s gone.

At least the role is confirmed: he’s been named on the wing, so there’s no positional mystery here — it’s purely a price problem. Source: NRL Team List | Round 13 | Knights

Young’s try lane is obvious: early ball, space, and finishing power. But the market is pricing him like the Knights are going to score, and he’s going to score, and it’s basically automatic. That’s not how winger ATS works, even in good matchups.

When you’re taking 1.45, you’re paying for a try rate that’s more than double Footylab’s expectation. That’s the whole story. Footylab’s fair price is closer to 1.42, but again, the key is probability: the book is charging a near “must happen” outcome.