NRL Round 14 Tips & Predictions 2022: H2H Value Picks & Odds

This is the kind of game where Manly’s better recent trend and playing at 4 Pines Park can absolutely matter, especially if they start fast and turn it into a field-position grind. The issue is Souths aren’t priced like a pushover either, and Footylab doesn’t see a big enough separation to justify forcing a side.

Manly around 1.55 is basically saying they win this comfortably more often than not, while Souths at about 2.55 says they’re live but need things to go their way. Footylab has it close to that split, so you’re not really being paid to take a stand either way.

Kalyn Ponga’s availability is the obvious swing factor for how punters see the Knights, and it’s part of why this market can feel jumpy. Source: NRL 2026: Queensland Maroons fullback Kalyn Ponga disappointed over send off in State of Origin opener

Storm around 1.63 is a “banker” type number. Footylab’s read is closer to a proper contest, which makes that quote hard to swallow. Newcastle around 2.40 is the side that benefits from the disagreement: you’re getting paid like they’re a clear outsider, while the underlying profile says they’re much closer to 50/50 than the market admits.

The Roosters’ leans are built on defence and overall season strength, plus a big “opponent weakness” edge in this matchup. That’s the case for them on paper. The reason the Raiders price still appeals is that Footylab’s win probability has this closer to a coin flip than the market does, which is exactly what you want when you’re being offered an underdog number at GIO.

Canberra around 2.25 is a proper outsider price, while the Roosters around 1.67 assumes they control the game more often than not. Footylab’s read says Canberra should be shorter than that, so you’re getting a bit of overs on the Raiders.

Source: NRL Match Preview: Raiders v Cowboys

The Dolphins’ leans are loud: strong recent form, and a defensive edge that usually travels. That’s why they’re favourite. The counter is that NQ at home are being treated like they need everything to go perfectly, when Footylab’s read says they win this more often than the odds suggest.

Cowboys around 2.20 is the number doing the work here. Dolphins around 1.73 is a “deserved favourite” price, but it doesn’t leave much room for a normal NQ home performance. If you think this is closer to 50/50 than the market does, you’d rather be holding the bigger quote.

The Broncos’ leans make sense: they’re better set up, and Suncorp is a genuine edge. But the Titans aren’t being rated as completely dead in the underlying numbers, which is the key point. If Gold Coast are anywhere near competitive, that short Brisbane quote gets uncomfortable fast.

Broncos around 1.36 is a “no excuses” favourite price. Footylab’s read has Brisbane more like a mid-50s win chance, not a near-70% job. Titans around 3.25 is tempting on paper, but Footylab doesn’t stamp it as value either; the main call is simply that Brisbane are too short.

This is the Panthers blueprint game: defend like lunatics, win the territory battle, and wait for the opposition to blink. Footylab’s numbers have Penrith winning this far more often than the market suggests, which is why the Tigers price is flagged as too short for an upset chance.

Panthers around 1.25 is short, but it’s consistent with how dominant the matchup looks. Tigers around 4.00 sounds juicy until you look at the win probability Footylab assigns them, which is much lower than what that price implies. You’re paying for hope, not edge.

The Sharks’ profile screams control: they’re built to win the middle, defend their line, and punish teams that give away cheap ball. Against the Dragons, that opponent-weakness lean is doing a lot of heavy lifting. Still, Footylab doesn’t see enough mispricing to call it value.

Sharks around 1.26 and Dragons around 4.25 is a pretty standard split for a clear favourite. Footylab’s numbers sit close to that, so unless you have a strong independent view on game script, it’s a pass rather than a play.

Parramatta’s Dylan Brown is listed as suspended for Round 14, which matters because it’s the kind of absence that can flatten an attack and change how you view the Eels’ ceiling. Source: NRL 2026, Judiciary charges, suspension news, latest charges, details and suspension updates from the NRL Match Review Committee and judiciary

Bulldogs around 1.64 vs Eels around 2.35 is a “slight home favourite” market. Footylab has it close to that. If you’re bullish on the Dogs’ home/defence lean holding up, you can understand the favourite tag; if you think Parramatta’s attack still travels, the Eels price is at least competitive. Footylab just doesn’t see a clean edge either way.